Glen Tenney's Online Resources
Topic: Business Cycle Theory 


 

CommodityPrices and Inflation: What’s the Connection?

By Frank Shostak

5 pages, 2008

The Financial Apocalyptics Are Back

By Robert Blumen

4 pages, 2007

Zimbabwe: Best Performing Stock Market in 2007?

By John Paul Koning

Koning argues that the 1,729% rate of growth in the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange—happening at the same time that the economy is falling apart in terms of GDP—is the result of huge increases in money supply. (3 pages, 2007)

Money and Inflation: The Tendency to Deny Reality

By Frank Shostak

If the rate of growth in the money supply and the rate of growth in production of goods and services are the same, do we have inflation? Shostak suggests that, if inflation is correctly defined as an increase in the money supply, then yes, there is inflation, even if the price indexes do not recognize this as an increase in the price level. Thus, the popular Fed preoccupation with price stability, by keeping the rate increases in the CPI at a particular acceptable range, is misguided because it can generate nasty side effects that emanate from the monetary expansion itself. In short, “The exchange of nothing for something that the expansion of money sets in motion cannot be undone by the increase in the production of goods.”  (4 pages, 2007)

Have We Outgrown Recessions?

By Frank Shostak

Shostak here suggests that the ordinary definition of recession as two quarters of decline in real GDP is not an adequate measure of economic downturns because GDP numbers lag tight monetary policy. Shostak recommends keeping an eye on the rate of growth in the money supply as the best indicator of the state of the economy. An increase in the growth momentum of money means that the pace of wealth destruction is intensifying, and a fall in the growth momentum of money means that the pace of wealth destruction is weakening. Thus recessions are about the liquidations of malinvestments that sprang up on the back of previous loose monetary policies. And so-called real economic growth, as depicted by real GDP, mirrors fluctuations in the rate of growth in the money supply. (7 pages, 2006)

Did Phelps Really Explain Stagflation?

By Frank Shostak

In yet another great article from Frank Shostak, he shows how creation of money out of “thin air” sets in motion an exchange of nothing for something, which amounts to a diversion of real wealth from wealth generators to the holders of newly created money. In the process genuine wealth generators are left with fewer resources at their disposal, which in turn weakens the wealth generators’ ability to grow the economy. Thus inflation and unemployment are positively related rather than inversely related as the Phillips curve suggests. Stagflation, which includes both inflation and unemployment, is the natural result of the creation of money out of “thin air.”  (7 pages, 2006)

Bernanke’s Yield Curve Confusions

By Frank Shostak

7 pages, 2006

The Ascension of Bernanke Into the Clouds

By Frank Shostak

In this article, Shostak points out how money is not neutral in the economy. He notes that in a developed market economy, the relative prices of goods and services across the time structure of production cannot be established independently of money. Thus inflation hampers the wealth creation process of the market by tampering with the price mechanism, which causes the misallocation of resources that ultimately hampers the economy in visible ways. (3 pages, 2005)

What Does Inflation Targeting Mean?

By Roger Garrison

Upon the announcement of Ben Bernanke as the new Fed Chief, Garrison notes that Bernanke, unlike Greenspan, supports the idea of targeting inflation at some positive level in an attempt to avoid deflation at all costs. (1 page, 2005)

Is the Fed an Inflation Fighter or Creator?

By Frank Shoshtak 

According to Shostak, inflation is all about the diversion of real wealth from wealth generators to non-wealth generators by means of increases in the money supply. It amounts to a policy for impoverishment of wealth producers, which is set in motion by inflating the stock of money. In this article he also points out why inflation cannot be set in motion by simple “inflationary expectations, a decrease in demand for money, or an increase in gas prices. And he further suggests that the popular idea of “transparency” on the part of the Fed is overstated. (3 pages, 2005)

 

 

 

 

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